Dubbo 2040: City's west to become significant focus for future housing

The population of the Dubbo region is expected to hit 65,700 by 2040.

And with that comes the need for more than 5500 new homes.

Dubbo Regional Council's manager of growth planning Steven Jennings expects most of that growth to be in west Dubbo.

The council is guided by a land use strategy from 1996, which Mr Jennings said at its core ensured Dubbo grew in a manner that guaranteed the central business district remained central to Dubbo.

Currently, the city is eastern-centric, he said.

But work is currently being undertaken on the north-west urban release area which is a parcel of almost 375 hectares, about two kilometres from the CBD. Then there will be the central west urban release area at the back of the Mitchell Highway and another in the south-west off Joira Road.

In 30 to 35 years Mr Jennings said there would be upwards of 23,000 people living in those west Dubbo release areas on about 10,000 lots.

But by 2040, he expects about one-third to one-half of the north-west urban release zone to be full.

"With the density that's allowable it's only about 3700 lots, but with the work that we've done out there, trying to promote that greater level of housing and diversity we can get to 5500," Mr Jennings said.

A diverse range of housing will be important in 2040.

Mr Jennings said in the last 10 years he had already seen a shift in the housing approvals data.

In the 2013/14 financial year - pre-amalgamation with the Wellington Shire Council - 76 per cent of development applications for residential development were for single dwellings. In 2022/23 it was 54 per cent.

"People want different types of housing. There's more of a focus on dual occupancy development with the two houses one block, or multi-dwelling development ... But one of the big things that we've seen growth in is the secondary dwellings, like granny flats," Mr Jennings said.

"So with somewhere like the northwest urban release area, we're really trying to focus on housing diversity because we know about that declining household size. Our population is ageing. Especially through to 2040 and beyond we need to make sure that we have that provision there where people can have different housing types and styles, not the traditional four-bedroom 600 to 800 metre block."

Real estate agent Laura Shooter, from SJ Shooter Real Estate, is already seeing a change in the demand for housing. Ms Shooter said it wasn't only due to income and affordability.

"Many people are seeking a lower maintenance lifestyle, and are more mindful of their environmental impact, and it's important to them to have a smaller home without a large yard or gardens to look after," she said.

"As our community welcomes more people from overseas, we're noticing they are more comfortable with higher density dwelling styles like duplexes, units and apartments, and seek these out as a preference to larger standalone homes."

By 2040, Ms Shooter said there should be a greater number of one and two bedroom accommodation options. She expects some of the supply to be met by "manufactured or modular housing innovations".

"There will also be a greater focus on the benefits of environmentally-friendly homes and communities," Ms Shooter said.

"My hope is that by 2040, Dubbo is a shining example of how regional communities can rise to the occasion of meeting their own needs, and a renowned case study on sustainable development and renewal," she said.

Mr Jennings said the council had two main roles in ensuring there was enough housing for residents in Dubbo.

The first is in assessing and determining development applications and construction certificates.

"But one of the more important aspects is trying to strategically plan housing for what our population needs and where we want Dubbo to grow to take advantage of existing infrastructure and to make sure that our community doesn't have a significant infrastructure burden in the future," Mr Jennings said.

Part of that involves collaborating with stakeholders like the state government and developers to ensure the housing spectrum doesn't get "off kilter".

"Dubbo has some great opportunities. It's making sure that we continue to realise those opportunities and if we get the policy settings right the housing will happen. It's just making sure all those pieces of the puzzle come together at the same time," Mr Jennings said.

"So the key thing for me is making sure we have do have robust strategic planning in place and also that we do bring the community on that journey so they understand what the changes are for Dubbo between now and 2040 and what the community expectations are and how we can best grow."