As the major parties chart out potential paths to power, a growing appetite for independent representation in regional communities could throw a spanner in the works, with new polling showing both major parties could miss out on the rural Victorian seat of Wannon.
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The YouGov polling, commissioned on behalf of AAP and ACM, shows former triple J presenter Alex Dyson is ahead of Liberal MP Dan Tehan on a two-candidate preferred basis (57 per cent to 43 per cent).
The polling looked at 12 key regional seats between April 17 and April 24, with a 6 per cent margin of error.
If Mr Dyson can pull off a win in Wannon, which is Victoria's second largest electorate and covers regional centres including Warrnambool, he would be unseating a former minister and incumbent of 15 years in Mr Tehan.
While independents swept into inner-city electorates at the last election, more than a dozen grassroots candidates are now targeting regional seats across Australia.

Calare will be another key indicator of their success, with former National Andrew Gee to run for the first time as an independent.
Mr Gee quit his party in December 2022 over policy disagreements, including their decision to oppose the Voice to Parliament, but will face a challenge from another independent, Kate Hook, who will push for urgent action on climate change.
The YouGov polling puts the independent two-candidate preferred vote at 57 per cent to the Liberals' 43 per cent, with Mr Gee projected to be in the stronger position.
Independents like ACT senator David Pocock have shown the ability of unaffiliated candidates to draw votes from both sides of politics.
While Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have both employed a fair bit of cut-and-paste politics over their four weeks of campaigning - think Medicare backdrops and petrol station drop-ins - the YouGov data suggests national issues aren't easily shoehorned into each electorate.
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Asked about their most important issues, voters in Ballarat were much less concerned with housing and local health services, which have dominated campaign talking points, but did want to see cost-of-living relief. While in Lyons, local health services was the major issue at play.
Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton are sure to spend their last week campaigning across electorates, flanked by local candidates, nodding along agreeably.
But it seems more likely it's the humble doorknock or the chat at a local supermarket that will persuade undecided voters, rather than these controlled media spectacles.
The polling shows the simple truth of politics - that voters want to feel heard and represented by their local candidates - a feat that major parties are increasingly struggling to pull off.

